Bracket Surfer

What is Bracket Surfer?

Bracket Surfer analyzes the Pick'em Plus tournament pools and tells you which games matter most to you tonight. It runs thousands of simulated tournaments to figure out your odds of winning money, then shows you who to root for and how much to care. Think of it as your personal rooting guide — it answers "should I want Duke or St. John's to win?" with actual math behind it.

Reading the Game Cards

Each game card shows two scenarios side by side — what happens to your odds if Team A wins vs. Team B wins.

Entry #1 / #2 Your bracket entries. The percentage shows how much your probability of finishing in a paid position changes. Green = good, red = bad.

Survivor Same thing for the survivor pool — how your odds of finishing in a paid survivor position change.

Confidence Points per win for that team in your confidence picks. Shows "—" if you don't have a pick on that team.

Spot Changes "+3 spots" means you'd move up 3 places in the rankings. "-2 spots" means you'd drop.

Rooting Interest

The 1-10 rating on each game card. It tells you how much this game matters to you in dollar terms.

10 This game could significantly swing your expected payout. Pay attention.

7-9 Important game. Worth watching closely.

4-6 Moderate impact. Nice to know but not critical.

1-3 Barely moves the needle. Watch for fun, not strategy.

The scale recalibrates each day. A 7 on Thursday might mean a different dollar amount than a 7 on Saturday, but it always means "above average importance for today's slate." Different players see different ratings for the same game because their picks are different.

Game Badges

MUST-WATCH Watchability 7-10 (rooting interest + game closeness)

NICE-TO-HAVE Watchability 4-6 (rooting interest + game closeness)

DON'T CARE Watchability 1-3 (rooting interest + game closeness)

In The Money & Projections

In The Money is your probability of finishing in a paid position. The number of prizes depends on how many entries are in the pool — roughly 1 prize per 10 entries. If it says 14.8%, that means in about 15 out of 100 simulated tournaments, you'd win money.

Win is your probability of winning the pool outright.

These numbers update after each game is decided. They reflect everyone's picks, not just yours — your odds depend on what other people picked too.

Win Probability Bar

The tug-of-war bar on each game card shows which team is favored and by how much. Amber segments fill toward the favored team, gray toward the underdog. The label shows the favored team's win percentage (or "Even" when it's 50/50). Before tip-off, the probability comes from pre-tournament team strength ratings. Once a game is live, it updates from ESPN's in-game data. The game badges (MUST-WATCH / NICE-TO-HAVE / DON'T CARE) factor in win probability too — a close game you care about ranks higher than a blowout.

The Rooting Bar

The segmented bar below each game recommendation shows direction and magnitude. Green blocks fill toward the team you should root for. More blocks = more important. The number above the bar is the 1-10 rooting interest rating. The center line is neutral — blocks going left favor the left team, blocks going right favor the right team.

Player Switcher

The dropdown in the top-right corner lets you view any league member's perspective. When you switch players:

Standing cards show their probabilities
Game cards show their deltas, spot changes, and rooting interest
Recommendations change to reflect their picks
Confidence shows "—" for other players (we only have your confidence picks)

The URL updates so you can bookmark or share a specific player's view.

Glossary

In The Money — Probability of finishing in a paid position (top N, where N depends on number of entries)

Win — Probability of winning the pool

EV (Expected Value) — Your average payout in dollars across all possible tournament outcomes

Game Swing — How much a single game result changes your expected payout

Rooting Interest — 1-10 rating of how much a game matters to you, based on dollar EV swing

Equity Split — When players tie in score, they share prize credit equally. This is why probabilities can be fractions.

MUST-WATCH / NICE-TO-HAVE / DON'T CARE — Game importance badges based on watchability (rooting interest + game closeness, 7-10 / 4-6 / 1-3)

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